The situation of China cold rolled steel in March 2013

In February, in China, the market price of cold rolled coil to the rising main. February 28, China's major cities 1.0mm cold plate an average price of 4952 yuan (t), up 111 yuan from the end of January. Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing 1.0mm Omo box board market price of 4860 yuan, 5050 yuan and 5100 yuan, or 170 yuan, 100 yuan and 100 yuan. The other second-tier market price or 60-170 yuan.

Cold rolled steel prices rise, there are mainly two reasons; the one hand, a further rise in steel prices cost more sturdy supporting role. Businesses hoard, on the other hand, a very few, limited resources, market liquidity, resulting in fewer cold-rolled steel products, but prices continue to grow. For Spring Festival is expected to once again good psychological fermentation postganglionic the inertial pull up the role, the pace of rising market prices before and after the Spring Festival has never stopped.

Specifically, the following prices up in February, the domestic large steel mills in the mainstream again blew the horn rose. Especially early in the New Year's Baosteel will surprise the first to raise the price policy in March after the holiday, other steel mills raised prices well ahead of preheating. Indeed, after the Chinese New Year, Shougang, Angang Steel new one price policy have to implement, the March cold rolled rises in 200-250 yuan. The Hebei steel of cold rolled steel producers will also follow the trend of price increases policy, the latter part of the cost of supporting a further consolidated. Just has not been started due to the the postganglionic downstream demand, the price after a space up Xuzhang power tends to weak businesses mainly changed to a stable and a wait-and-see, expected real market revitalization in about 3 months late.

On the other hand, during the Spring Festival market resources around the part arrival, but the arrival of relatively limited, only a few cities in the bulk arrival. Moreover, some steel mills busy exports, a decrease in the amount of domestic resources. However, businesses hoard goods, stocking seek and secure the relatively rare a large number Dongchu operations. Therefore, after the Spring Festival, the market resources is small there is a growing, but still at a low overall inventory. The salable few resources, support a certain price. But if the latter continue to add resources, demand start slow price "late spring" may only adjustment will be more limited. Late start gradually, demand and steel prices are expected to return to a rising channel.

According to the previous experience, each year, in March and April, is the the downstream demand gradually start of period. With the weather warming, the downstream procurement will gradually start to recover, and then one after another active this year, the pace of urbanization is a "policy year" downstream producers overall than last year's strong vitality, is a good cold rolled steel market. The overall market is expected to occur in March and April, a "peak", downstream needs to start in early March or significantly slow the true sense of the market recovery is a process, not small adjustments to exclude individual time period.

The Opportunities and Challenges of China Steel Trade

2012 end of the world, the Mayan prophecy did not come, however, China's iron and steel industry has experienced a year real doomsday baptism; steel demand to drop steel prices continued to drop, monetary tightening, the banks pumping loan, funds flee, economic growth speed dropped, etc, the China Steel industry has been a big shock.

However, the optimism of the Chinese steel enterprises, or believe, after the big impact, Chinese steel trade markets, in 2013, there must be a big opportunity while waiting.

Opportunities one: the economic rebound, increasing government investment, sluggish steel demand will have a larger rebound.

Obviously, the 2013 steel market, given the high expectations, the first face of the domestic economy to pick up, has long been recognized, several consecutive months of manufacturing PMI index showed that China's manufacturing industry began to jump out of the trough, showing a clear active; coupled with the general direction of the countries adhere to expand domestic demand and promote development, it is foreseeable that in 2013 China's domestic consumption will be a further rebound in the auto industry is a very obvious good momentum; manufacturing industry rebound, cold rolled steel and hot rolled steel plate etc, which is demand likely to get a larger increase in the signal; this is a marked change since the fourth quarter of 2012.

Another aspect is the national macro-policy changes, the development of new towns in the direction of "Eighteen" established by the Conference, pointed the way for this year's investment focus; real estate, infrastructure, and other industries will benefit, they will start moving up; Moreover, the attendant equipment manufacturing market will also be a good situation to usher in a significant increase in orders; coupled on the 2012 Development and Reform Commission issued a series of steady growth measures, has begun to specific implementation, some of the utility by the end of the year be verified; the nearly trillion urban rail track construction project since the end of September last year, in the spring of 2013, launched one after another. Rebar, wire rod and other materials of construction steel demand is expected to continue growing.

Opportunities 2: steel trade enterprises left for the king, the short machine to carve up the market share has come.

There is no doubt that the steel industry since the crisis in 2012, so that the closure of many companies, including upstream steel mills, the triage center steel market, of course, is the steel trade enterprises; organization released survey data show that in 2012, around the country, nearly thirty percent of the steel trade and business failures or exit the industry. Dabai shu steel trade market as the country's largest steel trade concentrated in Shanghai, more than 3% of the annual GDP contribution rate in the Shanghai area near depression.

Overall, the 2013 steel prices market will be better than 2012, which is already reached a consensus; analysis, however, the steel trade enterprises in the face of the big opportunities in front of more calm response is required; good macroeconomic policy advantage, also need funding support to the implementation of specific future large investment projects to where to get enough funds, need further observation; another full of instability to the international economic situation, the financial cliff in the United States is only a temporary solution, how to defuse a brief lull greater after the crisis, but wait for the negotiations of the forces of political parties in the United States, the euro zone debt crisis continues to ferment, and unstable factors still exist; let alone domestic steel serious excess capacity, the spot market oversupply the general pattern of signs of improvement yet. So despite the new opportunities are not small, but the potential risk, and therefore need to be cautious.

China steel import and export toward the off-season

The weather turns cold , everyone a languid look , site procurement also reduces a lot of demand for steel has been shrinking . And Dongchu steel suppliers trading business this year , the enthusiasm was generally weak, Steel City, the turnover has been feeling kind of bad to worse . Most people felt steel seasonal consumption in the off-season is gradually coming , therefore , wait and see on the market is a more intense atmosphere .

According to China Customs Express data shows , China 's exports of steel and iron ore imports qoq decline in both October . The data show that in steel exports in October were exported 4.84 million tons of steel ring decreased by 31 million tons compared with 5.15 million tons in September , a decline of 0.6 % year-on-year increase of 26.7% . January-October total exports of 45.78 million tons of steel , a year - on - year increase of 11.8% . The data also showed that 10 months of imports of 1.03 million tons of steel , a decrease of 170,000 tons , a decline of 14.2 % . Steel imports in January-October total of 11.55 million tons , down 12.2% , only lasted only a month , was forced to reverse a good situation for steel exports .

We believe that the decrease in exports of steel impact will be concentrated on the merchant mentality, but this is relative to the previous years, because in the previous years, see the decrease in exports of steel, the business mind may be turned pessimistic, but this yearthe eighteen major convene let the steel trading business, they held their breath waiting for favorable policies, the decrease in exports of China steel also let businesses hesitation, but the main thought of the steel trading business is still concentrated in the 18th Party Congress, therefore, it is estimatedthe recent steel price not yet have greater fluctuation.

However, in addition to weakening steel export data, iron ore imports in October also fell. According to statistics, in October China's imports of iron ore 56.43 million tons, ring than in September, down 13.2% year-on-year increase of 12.99%, 1-October cumulative imports of 607 million tons, an increase of 8.9%. From the iron ore import prices, the unit price of imports in October was 104.9 U.S. dollars / ton, a decline of 9.5%, year-on-year decline of up to 40.2% in January-October total import price of 132.3 U.S. dollars / ton, down 20.6%. Iron ore imports decline, which we expected.

As for the demand side, the weaker downstream demand for building materials has been more obvious, because from the inventories of view, as of last week, threaded stock or increase by 0.6% in the previous week; wire by 0.5% from 1.155 million tons, the formerweek by 1.1%;, we believe that this is mainly with the recent cold weather, the northern site stoppages phenomenon increased downstream procurement weak, causing building materials stocks soared to. But overall, the total domestic steel stocks last week but still keep the decline in state of affairs, because in addition to the thread, wire, other varieties of stocks have continued to decline. Hot rolled steel 3.148 million tons down 3.4%, down 2.9% in the previous week; cold rolled steel down 1.0% from 1.601 million tons, down 0.5% in the previous week; plate down 7.0% from 1.287 million tons, down 2.1% in the previous week. Inventory overall downward trend supporting the business mentality is not much fluctuation, and in steel city light atmosphere of turnover, the recent ore, coke prices remain steady rise, the cost of supporting a strong, even for the strong need the weak, but inventory levels are still relatively low, so steel prices will continue to maintain the original pattern difficult to have large fluctuations.