Steel Storage Plan in Winter

The last month of 2012 is gradually drawing to a close, in the first three quarters of this year, steel prices all the way down to the steel trading business has lost confidence in the market, and even started to give up to save the steel tradition to continue for many years in the winter. However, yesterday's institutions in the industry predict that steel prices next year may per ton rose a few hundred dollars, to 4000 yuan. This can also be considered to be the most optimistic projections of future steel prices. Coupled with the recent steel prices have an upward trend, many Chinese steel traders and renewed enthusiasm.

The steel market in December, giving the feeling of a deviant help, absolutely no traces of common sense out the card, steel prices in the 12 in the coldest month of the year is enthusiasm, macroeconomic policies favorable raw materials market rally supportand peripheral capital markets drive up the various factors such as the impact of steel prices have a relatively objective of growth, but the volume has not been a corresponding increase analysis worried about weak demand in the terminal, the rise of steel prices depend on external influences,with no stability.

But towards the end, continue the favorable policies of steel industry, the steel prices showed signs of warming. Development Research Center of the State Council, Industry Vice Minister Yang Jianlong, 2013, in the Chinese economy run steady trend on the rise, real estate, automotive, infrastructure, electricity and investment will increase.Meanwhile, the export situation will be improved, the new orders index, new export orders index, purchasing volume index continued to rise, the basic consumption of steel inventories reflect the company's activities end.For this, the steel industry has been the basic realization of the process of bottoming out, and 2013 is expected gradual recovery.

The sheet market, the price of the first two ten-day month is mainly a rebound, but in the late early and long products began to enter the shock consolidation period; sheet market hot-rolled, galvanized steel sheet and plate or, rose more than 120 tons, its reasons in addition affected by the favorable impact of the industrial economy continued to pick up, pick-up in manufacturing industry boom driven by the related demand for steel, smooth release of the main factors, plus sheet stock has been in a low, so that inthis winter has characteristics significantly difficult or easy to rise.

Analysts say， the next spring steel prices will certainly rise, so as long as there is a steel trading business should not only make steel storage ，and stocking should as much as possible. However, there are a lot of people think that this does not work, because of the problems of many steel companies have capital chain tension, will bring a lot of risk if a large number of steel storage，therefore， for steel-commerce providers， they should be careful for steel storage in winter.

Steel market situation in China

Recently, the domestic steel spot market to pick up slightly, but the demand side is still a lack of strong support. The performance impact of each macro side fundamentals, China steel prices will be back shock pattern.

According to the monitoring, the domestic spot steel prices being "first growth and stable". Last week, affected by the good news of the macro side, the steel market confidence has been boosted, and steel prices generally rose slightly. However, due to the deep-rooted Steel City "off-season" effect, rising steel prices and lack of demand for support, the price of steel products stabilized again.

According to the analysis, in the sheet market, the overall situation is a sign of strength, reversing a previous downward trend, however, the Wuhan individual market is still slightly dropped. The market analysts believe that the macro data show that the economy has been warmer, the capital market is also strong, which boosted the confidence of the steel market. Steel plate prices with the potential to rise, but "high" shipments rose difficult. The weather is getting cold, the downstream steel enterprises procurement reduce the total demand is weak, or the more obvious. Also the consolidation of hot rolled coil prices stabilized, the dominant trend of the market has been divided, the Shanghai market is basically stable, Tianjin, Beijing and other manifestations of decline. Even up areas, the businessmen's willingness to raise steel prices are still relatively low. At a time when the year-end season, merchants repayment pressure greater surface tension of funds, large-scale "stockpile" phenomenon is unlikely to occur.

In the construction steel market, overall prices were slightly up. However, with the northern part of the region once again snowfall, the downstream demand is further suppressed, the turnover of the steel will be blocked. Think some steel trading business, taking into account the prices of raw materials such as iron ore, steel billets is still strong, the other specifications of the individual market segments less resources, and the bottom of the construction steel market there is still some support for limited downside, in short term, steel prices are still vulnerable fluctuations.

Relevant agencies said that some downstream industries of steel began to exhibit varying degrees of signs of warming, which is more or less conducive to the increase in demand for steel. But it must be remembered, steel prices have been more than a year of decline, businesses lingering fear, more cautious mentality, plus funds face superimposed adjustment factors, the China steel will continue to maintain a weak state.

About Chinese steel industry profits

According to the latest statistics released by the General Administration of Customs, Chinese iron ore imports in November to 65.78 million tons, an increase of 9.35 million tons last month, setting a new high for the year. The face of the dependence of imported iron ore up to 60% of the current situation, "going out" of Chinese steel is becoming increasingly important to develop overseas mining rights. Before the National Development and Reform Commission, the Foreign Investment Department, Deputy Director Wang Jianjun said publicly that will increase policy support and development of enterprises' overseas iron ore development efforts.

Analysts said, In recent years, China's iron and steel industry has entered a period of steady development, the decline in iron ore demand growth, coupled with the rapid growth of the domestic ore imported ore alternative, since 2009 China's ironore imports growth is slowing down, prompting our dependence on imported ore to 60%, but still did not get rid of the fact that this long-standing dependence on imported.

Analysis. The data show that three quarters of the iron and steel industry profits down 84.1%, a decline from the previous quarter expanded 46.8 percent.The response in the industry is mainly concentrated in three areas. First, adjust the structure of the iron ore imports to ease reliance on the traditional three miners. On the other hand, the steel industry from top to bottom all want to compete for iron ore pricing right, the beginning of this year, China launched the iron ore spot trading platform, the iron ore futures are also in the pipeline.

Therefore, in accordance with the current situation, in the last month of 2012, the import and export of all kinds of steel will basically remain stable, such as stainless steel, galvanized steel and galvalume steel production and sales will not be too large fluctuations.

The data show that imported ore, less than 10% of China's mining interests. Steel Association had raised the target, the supply capacity of iron ore concentrate production for 2015 will be the total demand of less than 40% to about 45%; imported overseas iron ore concentrate, China's mining interests in imports the proportion of the total amount will be increased to 50% or more.

So, overall, the development of China's iron and steel space is still very large, especially in overseas expansion, of course, the domestic policy factors also affect the profits of China's steel, and is a critical factor. Because China steel prices advantage in international competition no longer has a dominant position, so only the continuous improvement of technology to improve the technological content of the iron and steel industry and steel, in order to gain advantage in the fierce competition in the status.

Latest China Steel News in 2013

There is no doubt that 2012 is the last ten years, the most difficult year for the China steel industry, whether manufacturers or trading enterprises are facing tremendous pressure. Near the end of the year, the industry is looking forward to the upcoming 2013, however, the steel industry has entered a cyclical correction in the context of slow economic growth, China steel supply and demand will further exacerbate the coming year, the Steel City, I am afraid it is still hard to Sudden Impact.

For the real economy, especially the manufacturing sector ubiquitous overcapacity, big but not strong, domestic consumption, lack of motivation and other issues. China's economy is facing two problems of structural and cyclical adjustment, the GDP growth rate of about 7% to 8% will be the norm in the future.

The IMF and the World Bank have also lowered the global and China's economic growth is expected in the next two years. IMF to China's 2013 growth forecast down to 8.2%, 0.6 percentage points lower than at the beginning, the World Bank cut China's 2013 GDP growth to 8.1% from 8.6% previously expected.

It can be predicted that in 2013, China's economy will maintain slow growth, annual GDP growth rate is expected to be between 7.6% to 8%.

Comparing the 2012 steel suppliers, we can find the steel pipe and steel plate demand are larger, like ERW pipe, seamless pipes, hot rolled steel plate, cold rolled steel, etc. Besides, the steel coil always keeps a balance situation. Of course, for many industries, galvanized steel coil, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil are playing key role for their production. We can believe these special steel coil will have a bigger supplying and demand.

Based on scale effect, reduce the pursuit of merger risk factors to consider, in recent years, China's steel production capacity is very considerable. According to statistics, this year plans to add 53 blast furnace, iron smelting capacity of about 70000000 tons, crude steel production capacity of 9.3 tons at present; in 2013, plans for additional iron smelting capacity of about 40000000 tons, then China's crude steel production capacity will reach 9.7 tons, 10 tons to close greatly approximation.

Considering the overall poor economic environment, the steel city is difficult to be a fundamental turn for the better, as well as the steel profit difficulties and other factors, the release of production capacity will be affected certainly, is expected in 2013 crude steel production in 7.3 tons ~7.4 tons, increase than 2012 2%~3%.

Since this year, domestic iron ore production capacity output grows steadily. ~9 in January, China's iron ore production reached 9.7 tons, grow 16.6% compared to the same period, predicting annual is expected to reach 15 tons. According to incomplete statistics, China new ore production capacity of more than 4.5 tons, and for many large mining projects, and belongs to the national or the local government encourages project, production capacity will be smooth release. Foreign mines, three mines in the vale of nearly 1 tons of capacity planning completed and put into production in 2013, Rio Tinto plans in 2013 production capacity reached 2 tons.

Based on the above analysis, the China steel industry overcapacity in the illness has reached the adjustment not stage, is expected next year, the main varieties of average steel prices will drop further down, the main varieties in 5% the left and right sides, low will be lower than this year, this year the high and flat or slightly low, whole year or emerged after the former high-low trend.