Chinese Steel Prices

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the first half of the main indicators of economic data show that the first quarter GDP growth of 7.7% in the second quarter GDP growth of 7.5% in the first half growth rate of 7.6%. After the data release, triggering a stock market sharply higher, China steel prices have been rising trend, thus boosting the steel market activity. Construction steel, hot-rolled coil, cold rolled coil, plate and other steel prices rise.

June economic data has basically been out over, from a series of economic data, is still dominated by weak economic data is a period of time to the response of China's economic trends, weakening the data directly demonstrate China's economic growth is still slowing, while the downstream industry if it continues to weaken, then the demand for steel will also be difficult to release January-June of fixed asset investment continued to decline, with the lowest growth rate unchanged in 10 years, which indicates that China's economy has been facing greater pressure , and 7-8 months, the steel industry or always return season.

1-6 months of new projects with the previous month, thus, showing little change in the downstream industry this month, mainly with local remained "no stimulus" policies, although on June whether manufacturing or automotive industries, data have come down, but the outdoor new projects to maintain balance, which for the steel city, it has been regarded as a positive. However, the total investment of decline, it may affect the progress of these projects, the demand for steel has certain constraints.

For the steel industry, in June economic data remains weak, whether fixed asset investment, or GDP or export data, the trend has continued to decline, facing downstream industry downturn, it seems that China's steel industry is too optimistic. Because the latest data show that in June China's crude steel output of 64.66 million tons, an increase of 4.6%; monthly average daily crude steel production was 2.155 million tons, a decline of 0.3%, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, but still historically high. January-June total crude steel production was 389.87 million tons, an increase of 7.4% in the first half average daily crude steel production was 2.154 million tons, this level estimates annual crude steel production is expected to reach 786 million tons. Regardless of how the downstream industry, China's steel production will have a higher than normal interest, which is still weak economic data is concerned, it is not optimistic.

In general, the Chinese Steel prices can be easily affected by demotic policy, according to the latest date shows, China steel prices will get some rising in the next month. Like Galvanized steel, steel coil, angle iron, steel pipe, seamless pipe, etc, certainly, for square tube, because of the demand of market is bigger, its requirement is much bigger. 

Hot Rolled Steel From China

Recent data shows, State five rules promulgated led to relatively large fluctuations in the steel market, traders depressed mood, the market purchases enthusiasm weakened, closing the atmosphere is poor. Construction steel sheet products have appeared slipped sensitive hot rolled steel price decline.

Generally speaking, Domestic major cities Ф25mm three rebar average price of 3849 yuan (t price, the same below), compared to 4 or 6 yuan; the domestic key cities Ф6.5mm high line an average price of 3,718 yuan, compared with $ 4 or 4; domestic prioritiescity ​​5.5mm average price of hot rolled coil is 4013 yuan, down 37 yuan over the 4th; 1.0mm cold plate of the domestic focus of the central city average price of 4,939 yuan, compared with the 4th down 6 million; the domestic key cities 20mm plate average price3953 yuan, compared with 4 or $ 18.

China's GDP growth target this year as well as the increase in CPI of view, stable growth, control inflation is a main tone, means in the context of the loose global liquidity, China's policy-oriented under the premise of stable growth to prevent inflation rise will not sacrifice everything in order to maintain growth. Then for the steel market, in in financial effect amplification push up the price of rising channel, but also consider the needs of the Chinese entity performance, pull the power in the market is affected by the cost factor in the case of rapid increase in inventory, demand starts slow, weak people in the short term, steel prices has yet to reverse the signs of elevation. But the demands of the market holding stability has been strengthened, the steel city today is expected to gradually stabilize.

Factors affecting the domestic construction steel market, mainly the following aspects:

One is the leading steel mills steady mainly. The domestic steel prices shocks down, not many steel mills to adjust to the ex-factory price. Hebei Iron and Steel, Shougang Changzhi guide price of early March raised by 100 yuan / ton, while the East China Shagang rebar prices flat in early March, the whole month of February making it up 100 yuan / ton. Overall, domestic steel prices and market prices generally upside down, but at the cost pressure of circumstances, steel mills offer more to maintain strong price making it up are more limited.

The second is the majority of the raw material prices down. According to the monitoring data show that as of March 1, the Tangshan area carbon billet price of 3250 yuan / ton, down from Friday 50 yuan / ton; Jiangsu Province scrap price of 2900 yuan / ton, unchanged from Friday; Shanxi coke price 1470 yuan / ton, unchanged from Friday; taste dry Tangshan area, 66% iron ore price of 1170 yuan / ton, down from Friday 20 yuan / ton. At the same time, the external disk offer grade 63.5% Indian iron ore fines of $ 152.75 / ton 2.75 U.S. dollars / ton, down from Friday.

Third postganglionic steel stocks continue Masukura. According to the monitoring data show that as of March 1, the major varieties of steel inventory total of 21,583,600 tons, weekly chain Masukura 6.78% inventory increase has slowed compared to the previous two weeks, the downstream demand this week must start signs. Now, the total social stock has the same caliber of year-on-year increase in more than 1 million tons, and has hit a record high level of general annual inventory and more experience Masukura 4-6 weeks and then transferred to the downstream channel, so late The destocking task is arduous.

Of course, China policies will make some affect on China steel market, especially, steel prices will be affected. And according to internal prices of steel, the China steel prices will have a proper level.

China Steel Prices After Chinese New Year

Just the end of the Spring Festival, many steel trading business have started to the new year's work, more and more people are open for business, and steel prices rebound. Overall, however, the prices of finished steel were now significantly rise, including sheet metal products gains stronger than construction steel.

Monitoring shows that, the domestic key cities Ф25mm three rebar average price of 3925 yuan (t price, the same below), up 46 yuan from preganglionic; the domestic key cities Ф6.5mm high line an average price of 3,770 yuan before the holiday up 41yuan; domestic major cities 5.5mm hot rolled coil average price of 4,212 yuan, up 51 ​​yuan from preganglionic; 1.0mm cold plate of the domestic focus of the central city average price of 4,906 yuan, up 49 yuan before the holiday; domestic major cities 20mmthe board average price of 4054 yuan, up 67 yuan higher than before the holiday.

We know, from entering since 2013, many macroeconomic data show that the economy is slowly recovering. January export growth hit a 21 month high, PPI chain liters by the down turn, influenced by the Spring Festival Golden Week, the rapid growth in consumer. The market is generally believed that the economic rebound is expected to enhance the future economic growth will continue to rebound.CPI data, although affected by seasonal factors, the January CPI as expected to fall, but the view from the the Recent market participants forecast the February CPI data, the possibility of warming is still very large.

During the Spring Festival, the businesses in the market outlook is expected to better steel prices increased significantly, while around the arrival and more, so the obvious rise in the stock, recently merchant sales pressure is revealed. Inventory, as of last week, the 35 major markets nationwide rebar inventory was 8.4544 million tons, an increase of 930,800 tons; the wire stock 2,322,300 tons, an increase of 445,700 tons. From national wire rod, rebar, steel coil (hot rolled coil, cold rolled coils), the inventory total view of the plate, etc., a comprehensive national inventory total of 18,117,700 tons, an increase of 1.85 million tons, an increase of 11.37%.

At the same time, the postganglionic all varieties inventory increased in volume.According to the inventory statistics show that, as of February 19, 2013, the social inventory of the nation's major markets five varieties of steel was 18.016 million tons, an increase of 1.851 million tons compared with before the Spring Festival, rising for nine weeks in a row.The downstream construction as well as machining timber procurement earliest have to wait until the Lantern Festival after recovery, the steel market in the short-term need to guard against the risk of a sudden drop in steel prices.

Steel Storage Plan in Winter

The last month of 2012 is gradually drawing to a close, in the first three quarters of this year, steel prices all the way down to the steel trading business has lost confidence in the market, and even started to give up to save the steel tradition to continue for many years in the winter. However, yesterday's institutions in the industry predict that steel prices next year may per ton rose a few hundred dollars, to 4000 yuan. This can also be considered to be the most optimistic projections of future steel prices. Coupled with the recent steel prices have an upward trend, many Chinese steel traders and renewed enthusiasm.

The steel market in December, giving the feeling of a deviant help, absolutely no traces of common sense out the card, steel prices in the 12 in the coldest month of the year is enthusiasm, macroeconomic policies favorable raw materials market rally supportand peripheral capital markets drive up the various factors such as the impact of steel prices have a relatively objective of growth, but the volume has not been a corresponding increase analysis worried about weak demand in the terminal, the rise of steel prices depend on external influences,with no stability.

But towards the end, continue the favorable policies of steel industry, the steel prices showed signs of warming. Development Research Center of the State Council, Industry Vice Minister Yang Jianlong, 2013, in the Chinese economy run steady trend on the rise, real estate, automotive, infrastructure, electricity and investment will increase.Meanwhile, the export situation will be improved, the new orders index, new export orders index, purchasing volume index continued to rise, the basic consumption of steel inventories reflect the company's activities end.For this, the steel industry has been the basic realization of the process of bottoming out, and 2013 is expected gradual recovery.

The sheet market, the price of the first two ten-day month is mainly a rebound, but in the late early and long products began to enter the shock consolidation period; sheet market hot-rolled, galvanized steel sheet and plate or, rose more than 120 tons, its reasons in addition affected by the favorable impact of the industrial economy continued to pick up, pick-up in manufacturing industry boom driven by the related demand for steel, smooth release of the main factors, plus sheet stock has been in a low, so that inthis winter has characteristics significantly difficult or easy to rise.

Analysts say， the next spring steel prices will certainly rise, so as long as there is a steel trading business should not only make steel storage ，and stocking should as much as possible. However, there are a lot of people think that this does not work, because of the problems of many steel companies have capital chain tension, will bring a lot of risk if a large number of steel storage，therefore， for steel-commerce providers， they should be careful for steel storage in winter.

Steel market situation in China

Recently, the domestic steel spot market to pick up slightly, but the demand side is still a lack of strong support. The performance impact of each macro side fundamentals, China steel prices will be back shock pattern.

According to the monitoring, the domestic spot steel prices being "first growth and stable". Last week, affected by the good news of the macro side, the steel market confidence has been boosted, and steel prices generally rose slightly. However, due to the deep-rooted Steel City "off-season" effect, rising steel prices and lack of demand for support, the price of steel products stabilized again.

According to the analysis, in the sheet market, the overall situation is a sign of strength, reversing a previous downward trend, however, the Wuhan individual market is still slightly dropped. The market analysts believe that the macro data show that the economy has been warmer, the capital market is also strong, which boosted the confidence of the steel market. Steel plate prices with the potential to rise, but "high" shipments rose difficult. The weather is getting cold, the downstream steel enterprises procurement reduce the total demand is weak, or the more obvious. Also the consolidation of hot rolled coil prices stabilized, the dominant trend of the market has been divided, the Shanghai market is basically stable, Tianjin, Beijing and other manifestations of decline. Even up areas, the businessmen's willingness to raise steel prices are still relatively low. At a time when the year-end season, merchants repayment pressure greater surface tension of funds, large-scale "stockpile" phenomenon is unlikely to occur.

In the construction steel market, overall prices were slightly up. However, with the northern part of the region once again snowfall, the downstream demand is further suppressed, the turnover of the steel will be blocked. Think some steel trading business, taking into account the prices of raw materials such as iron ore, steel billets is still strong, the other specifications of the individual market segments less resources, and the bottom of the construction steel market there is still some support for limited downside, in short term, steel prices are still vulnerable fluctuations.

Relevant agencies said that some downstream industries of steel began to exhibit varying degrees of signs of warming, which is more or less conducive to the increase in demand for steel. But it must be remembered, steel prices have been more than a year of decline, businesses lingering fear, more cautious mentality, plus funds face superimposed adjustment factors, the China steel will continue to maintain a weak state.

About Chinese steel industry profits

According to the latest statistics released by the General Administration of Customs, Chinese iron ore imports in November to 65.78 million tons, an increase of 9.35 million tons last month, setting a new high for the year. The face of the dependence of imported iron ore up to 60% of the current situation, "going out" of Chinese steel is becoming increasingly important to develop overseas mining rights. Before the National Development and Reform Commission, the Foreign Investment Department, Deputy Director Wang Jianjun said publicly that will increase policy support and development of enterprises' overseas iron ore development efforts.

Analysts said, In recent years, China's iron and steel industry has entered a period of steady development, the decline in iron ore demand growth, coupled with the rapid growth of the domestic ore imported ore alternative, since 2009 China's ironore imports growth is slowing down, prompting our dependence on imported ore to 60%, but still did not get rid of the fact that this long-standing dependence on imported.

Analysis. The data show that three quarters of the iron and steel industry profits down 84.1%, a decline from the previous quarter expanded 46.8 percent.The response in the industry is mainly concentrated in three areas. First, adjust the structure of the iron ore imports to ease reliance on the traditional three miners. On the other hand, the steel industry from top to bottom all want to compete for iron ore pricing right, the beginning of this year, China launched the iron ore spot trading platform, the iron ore futures are also in the pipeline.

Therefore, in accordance with the current situation, in the last month of 2012, the import and export of all kinds of steel will basically remain stable, such as stainless steel, galvanized steel and galvalume steel production and sales will not be too large fluctuations.

The data show that imported ore, less than 10% of China's mining interests. Steel Association had raised the target, the supply capacity of iron ore concentrate production for 2015 will be the total demand of less than 40% to about 45%; imported overseas iron ore concentrate, China's mining interests in imports the proportion of the total amount will be increased to 50% or more.

So, overall, the development of China's iron and steel space is still very large, especially in overseas expansion, of course, the domestic policy factors also affect the profits of China's steel, and is a critical factor. Because China steel prices advantage in international competition no longer has a dominant position, so only the continuous improvement of technology to improve the technological content of the iron and steel industry and steel, in order to gain advantage in the fierce competition in the status.

Chinese steel prices have fallen

Now it is the season to wear thick clothes. Scarlet sweater turned out, down jacket turned out, collar turned out, a lot of clothing inventory, but the grass is always greener is human nature, so a bunch of clothes did not bring me much of a surprise, this feels like the recent China steel market, the stock decline in both, but the surprise was general merchants like.

Bad weather, the number of downstream construction will be blocked, the steel market demand will weaken, businesses Dongchu idea and hesitant, in this case, the week before the steel stocks rose for the first time after the National Day, but justone week only, until last weekend, the domestic steel stocks have once again returned to the downstream channel. According to statistics, as of November 23, the social inventory of the country's 26 major markets five varieties of steel (rebar, wire rod, hot rolled coils, cold rolled coils) to 11.927 million tons, compared with the previous week, dropped by 16.5 tons, total inventory hit the lowest level since December 2009; (November 25, 2011), compared with the same period last year, the total inventory decreased to 1.209 million tons, the first decline in five weeks zoom.

In previous years, this time inventory decline is quite normal, but in the case of steel production to continue to enlarge the market demand and a marked decline in this year, stocks are still down, which was a bit surprised, but has not reached the degree of surprise. Stock decline, which means that the recent merchants who would be no pressure on the stock, this week is the last week of November, slightly ease the pressure on the stock for the toss funding problems, irritability down businesses, can be considered a little comfort, but will not have to do this joy.

We believe that the domestic steel stocks slipped last week, with the iron ore market inventory decline are not unrelated. As far as we know, the domestic steel stocks declined, while last week, iron ore stocks have also experienced a decline, and also has four consecutive weeks of decline. According to statistics, as of November 23, 2012, the 30 major ports in the country's total iron ore stocks at 82.63 million tons, a decrease of 2.68 million tons compared with the previous week, declining for four consecutive weeks. Compared with the same period last year (November 25, 2011), the total inventory reduction of 14.7 million tons, a year-on-year decline to continue to expand. View from iron ore sources, last week, the three major sources of imports for stocks to continue across the board decline in Brazilian ore to reduce still up, a decrease of 1.52 million tons compared with the previous week, a decrease of 40,000 tons and 250,000 tons respectively in Australia and India mine.

With the arrival of winter, the reduced demand for steel, the late steel mills may be forced to cut production behavior, which will directly affect the demand for iron ore. There may be a lot of people think that the steel industry profit margins, steel mills, how willing to cut it, but It is understood that China's iron and steel industry had the most difficult time of the year, the industry as a whole has improved in net investment income and steel Association member companies in mid-October is still a loss, so the steel industry in order to thoroughly losses still very difficult, so even if the steel mills want to continue to increase, attitudes also appear hesitant.

The recent downward pressure of domestic steel prices are increasing, and indirectly led to the price of iron ore are into the downstream channel. Perhaps it was taking into account these factors, a decrease in supply of iron ore, the stock began to slowly decline. On the other hand, the supply and demand pressures, many large enterprises have continued to cut production of behavior, steel procurement is more hesitant, so the whole steel inventory is not a big pressure, not urging businesses to fill inventory, and that makes the recent steel City's stock decline.

On the whole, China steel prices and iron ore stocks tumble, however, for the business, how to open the demand is the real key, the inventory decline of course, will ease the pressure of the business, but the difference in demandbefore, businesses are difficult to real joy.