About the situation of China steel trade

Major cities of China steel storing decreased by 47 million tons last week: As of last Friday (2013-4-19) the five steel of the major cities across the country (rebar, wire rod, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coils, steel plate) social steel stocks totaled 2084.25 tons, a decrease of 4.7 million tons compared to the same period in the previous week, has increased qoq, Description of steel the destocking has accelerated, especially rebar market turnover improved markedly.

Consistent decline in the domestic construction steel market last week, by the capital market crash, the market mentality was shocking, merchants offer have been lower. In addition, although recently with the weather warming, the downstream site starts increased procurement requirements than in the past, an increase in inventory of construction steel market decline, but demand for the release speed is far less than "to stock" speed "to the inventory the process seems to be rather long, and also restricting the process of the construction steel market thoroughly warmed. According to latest statistics show that China Iron and Steel Association, crude steel output of the key enterprises in early April 1.6973 million tons, an increase of 2.14 million tons, ten-day growth of 1.28%; national forecast crude steel output of 2,123,900 tons, an increase of 5.2 tons, late growth of 2.51%, a new record. The current point of view, on the one hand, a continuation of the high-volume, on the one hand, high inventory status quo, construction steel market substantive improvement in the pace will be slow down significantly.

Monitoring shows that as of April 19, China 10 major cities 25mm rebar average price of 3634 yuan (t price, the same below), down 60 yuan over the previous weekend, down 99 yuan over the same period the previous month. First-tier cities all fell, the decline in the $ 20-110 range, a drop of up to 110 yuan Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Xi'an, Chengdu or 60-90 yuan, other cities fell 20-50. 10 major cities in 25mm rebar average price of 3,595 yuan, 50 yuan, down from last weekend, down 91 yuan over the same period the previous month; Hangzhou, down 110 yuan, down 60-90 yuan Beijing, Chengdu, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi'an , Wuhan, Shenyang and other cities down 10-50. China 10 major cities 6.5mm high line average 3580 yuan, than last weekend, down 47 yuan, down 74 yuan over the same period the previous month; Zhengzhou flat, Beijing, Guangzhou, down 80-90 yuan, other cities fell 20-50 million.

Hot rolled coil: monitoring shows that, as of April 19, the average price of 10 major domestic cities 5.5mm hot-rolled coil is 3747 yuan, down 105 yuan over the previous weekend, down 194 yuan over the same period the previous month; Beijing, Shanghai,Hangzhou, Shenyang, Tianjin or 100-150, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Chengdu, down 80-90. Inventory, according to statistics, as of April 19, the 29 major cities hot rolled coil inventory reached 4.536 million tons, compared with the same period last week, an increase of 14,600 tons, an increase of 0.32% over the same period the previous month by 3.07% , 1.06% lower than the same period last year. The leading city of the South Shanghai Stock 1.13 million tons last week by 30,000 tons, an increase of 2.73%; Guangzhou inventory of 77.8 million tons, down 0.5 million tons more than last week, a decline of 0.64%. The dominant northern city of Tianjin, the stock market is 529,000 tons, down 0.8 million tons more than last week, a decline of 1.49%; Handan 14.8 million tons, down 04,300 tons, a decline of 2.84%.: monitoring shows that, as of April 19, the average price of 10 major domestic cities 5.5mm hot-rolled coil is 3747 yuan, down 105 yuan over the previous weekend, down 194 yuan over the same period the previous month; Beijing, Shanghai,Hangzhou, Shenyang, Tianjin or 100-150, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Chengdu, down 80-90. Inventory, according to statistics, as of April 19, the 29 major cities hot rolled coil inventory reached 4.536 million tons, compared with the same period last week, an increase of 14,600 tons, an increase of 0.32% over the same period the previous month by 3.07% , 1.06% lower than the same period last year. The leading city of the South Shanghai Stock 1.13 million tons last week by 30,000 tons, an increase of 2.73%; Guangzhou inventory of 77.8 million tons, down 0.5 million tons more than last week, a decline of 0.64%. The dominant northern city of Tianjin, the stock market is 529,000 tons, down 0.8 million tons more than last week, a decline of 1.49%; Handan 14.8 million tons, down 04,300 tons, a decline of 2.84%.

China Steel Prices will be trend of rising

Relative to the same period in 2012, the level of steel prices this year as a whole compared to last year were down 200 yuan / ton; peak of the first half of last year, steel demand for the release in late April to May, so it seems that this year should be according tolikely go with the original track; specific point of view, we believe that steel prices this month to usher in a real rebound, you may need to explore from the following aspects.

Enter mid-March, the market reaction turnover improved, but by the author's observation, the downstream buyers become very cautious, multi-demand procurement, rarely concentrated replenishment; description of this stage downstream sectors of the steel market has always held a cautious wait-and-see attitude. In fact, with the nearly two years since the global economic slowdown, the steel industry and downstream industry boom of the obvious fall in the raw materials and other cost control more strictly, the downstream industry is too concerned about the changes in the steel market, further forcing steel post cast more tangled. In this way, the actual demand if there is no real release, depends on expectations has been difficult to easily pry the big changes in the steel city.

From Steel Association released the latest data show that until the end of the end of March, the key steel enterprises internal steel stocks fell about 800000-13700000 t, amounting to ten days for the first time to drop, while at the same time last week, the social stock of steel continuous the third week dropped to 21.62 million tons; inside and outside the steel stocks double down; greater amount of end demand for the release. Ching Ming Festival, this acceleration to the inventory may further increase the high probability event. So for a long period of "price depression" steel market, pull up the grounds, after the festival, sufficient to illustrate this point, the businesses active pull-up will significantly enhance the performance of the market.

From the General Administration of Customs recently latest data show that in March China's steel exports 5.28 million tons, an increase of 4.97%; 1-3 months of total exports of 14.43 million tons of steel, an increase of 18.8%. In March, China imported 1.23 million tons of steel, down 3.15%; 1-3 months of total imports of 3.23 million tons of steel a year-on-year decline of 5.3%. In March, China's imports of iron ore was 64.55 million tons, an increase of 2.67%; imported a total of 186.48 million tons of iron ore in 1-3 months, unchanged from the same period last year. - March, China's steel export volume is the highest since 21 months, the focus is also broke the 500 million tonnes mark.

Generally speaking, China steel prices will have some changes in this month, but the key factors should be decided by the trends of economic. And we can be sure, according to the rising of economic, the demand of steel will rise, like steel plate, steel coil, galvanized steel, and galvanized angle iron will get more demand in the next month.

The Trend of China Steel in April 2013

In view of the above analysis, China steel market can usher in growth, supply and demand in the degree of development remains to be seen. Short term, with the weather gradually gets warmer, the demand for slow release in early April will usher in a wave within a narrow range rebound, but the magnitude will remain limited, and in late still need to pay close attention to the latest trends of the market regulation. New "urbanization" policy, as China's economic growth momentum in the next decade, yet it remains on a conceptual level, only to various rules, the planning and the gradual introduction of the Steel City real good, in addition to all around the island announced details of the five countries bearish steel City, may still lead to early April to pick up market push.

Inventory, with the continuous release of the production capacity of China's iron and steel industry, the history of the highest point of the steel inventories continue to be refreshed, and the stock lowest point is gradually climbing, especially experienced for a long time or later in the macro side early positive superimposed boosted, inventory since 2009, the most visible and lasting rise, as of March 29, according to the statistics: Shanghai rebar inventory of 440,400 tons, an increase of 0.94%, a decrease of 0.3% last week; 485,000 tons Guang zhou MoM decrease of 7.62%, a decrease of 2.05% last week; 937,800 tons Beijing, a decrease of 2.4%, an increase of 1.67 percent last week; wire stock of 66,000 tons, an increase of 0.92% from last week, an increase of 4.64%; 478,000 tons Guang zhou MoM decrease of 11.32%, an increase of 0.56% last week; 92,500 tons Beijing, a decrease of 7.04%, an increase of 1.12% last week.

From sheet plate， as of last week, the domestic steel inventories finally emerged decline, but the plate decline rate has been relatively limited. Hot rolled coil and cold rolled coils inventory reduction of 3.9 million tons and 1.5 million tons respectively over the previous week; inventory of hot rolled coil, Wuxi market reduced by more than 3 million tons, is to reduce the most obvious market. The Tianjin market stocks also fell more than 10 thousand tons; Shanghai and Shenyang market increase of more than 10,000 tons. Little change over the stock market of cold rolled coils. This shows that the downstream industry demand is not great on the plate.

The demand side, while social stock rising demand for the release, but it falls short. Since March, the terminal site gradually return to work, steel demand release, but still significantly limited compared with a high level of inventory, the market destocking willingness markedly effective urgent. Macroeconomic data from February, however, the domestic economy is bottoming out and steady growth trend has not changed, but is still in the running state of sub-health and stable price policy of the central bank and the new "the country five" extremely rules promulgatedunder, the downturn in the steel city, once again increasing the pressure.

Overall, construction steel prices north and south of quite different, North China needs better rebounded pileare offer, the southern region due to continued sluggish demand continues to shock fall; and steel plate, hot-rolled steel market continued to fall, the market traded at its lowest ebb, cold rolled coils stabilize, plate steel steady downward. According to market monitoring: As of closing, 25mm two threaded average price of 3,654 yuan, more than last week, down 32 yuan; 25mm three threaded an average price of 3,703 yuan, down 30 yuan; 6.5mm high line price of 3647 yuan, down 82 yuan ; 5.5mm hot-rolled average price of 3,845 yuan, down 96 yuan; 1.0mm cold-rolled average price of 4,886 yuan, up 2 million; 20mm plate average price of 3,843 yuan, or 24 yuan.