The Opportunities and Challenges of China Steel Trade

2012 end of the world, the Mayan prophecy did not come, however, China's iron and steel industry has experienced a year real doomsday baptism; steel demand to drop steel prices continued to drop, monetary tightening, the banks pumping loan, funds flee, economic growth speed dropped, etc, the China Steel industry has been a big shock.

However, the optimism of the Chinese steel enterprises, or believe, after the big impact, Chinese steel trade markets, in 2013, there must be a big opportunity while waiting.

Opportunities one: the economic rebound, increasing government investment, sluggish steel demand will have a larger rebound.

Obviously, the 2013 steel market, given the high expectations, the first face of the domestic economy to pick up, has long been recognized, several consecutive months of manufacturing PMI index showed that China's manufacturing industry began to jump out of the trough, showing a clear active; coupled with the general direction of the countries adhere to expand domestic demand and promote development, it is foreseeable that in 2013 China's domestic consumption will be a further rebound in the auto industry is a very obvious good momentum; manufacturing industry rebound, cold rolled steel and hot rolled steel plate etc, which is demand likely to get a larger increase in the signal; this is a marked change since the fourth quarter of 2012.

Another aspect is the national macro-policy changes, the development of new towns in the direction of "Eighteen" established by the Conference, pointed the way for this year's investment focus; real estate, infrastructure, and other industries will benefit, they will start moving up; Moreover, the attendant equipment manufacturing market will also be a good situation to usher in a significant increase in orders; coupled on the 2012 Development and Reform Commission issued a series of steady growth measures, has begun to specific implementation, some of the utility by the end of the year be verified; the nearly trillion urban rail track construction project since the end of September last year, in the spring of 2013, launched one after another. Rebar, wire rod and other materials of construction steel demand is expected to continue growing.

Opportunities 2: steel trade enterprises left for the king, the short machine to carve up the market share has come.

There is no doubt that the steel industry since the crisis in 2012, so that the closure of many companies, including upstream steel mills, the triage center steel market, of course, is the steel trade enterprises; organization released survey data show that in 2012, around the country, nearly thirty percent of the steel trade and business failures or exit the industry. Dabai shu steel trade market as the country's largest steel trade concentrated in Shanghai, more than 3% of the annual GDP contribution rate in the Shanghai area near depression.

Overall, the 2013 steel prices market will be better than 2012, which is already reached a consensus; analysis, however, the steel trade enterprises in the face of the big opportunities in front of more calm response is required; good macroeconomic policy advantage, also need funding support to the implementation of specific future large investment projects to where to get enough funds, need further observation; another full of instability to the international economic situation, the financial cliff in the United States is only a temporary solution, how to defuse a brief lull greater after the crisis, but wait for the negotiations of the forces of political parties in the United States, the euro zone debt crisis continues to ferment, and unstable factors still exist; let alone domestic steel serious excess capacity, the spot market oversupply the general pattern of signs of improvement yet. So despite the new opportunities are not small, but the potential risk, and therefore need to be cautious.